Friday, July 20, 2007

It's a long season. Relax.

by Dean Geddes

Make no mistake, the Red Sox offense in the last couple months has been terrible with runners in scoring position. They just can't seem to put together big innings. Whether it's a rally-killing double play or the lack of clutch two-out RBI's, it seems these last couple of months the Red Sox need an extra out to score runs.

The Red Sox hit .297 with RISP in their first 49 games and had the best record in baseball at 36-13. In the last two months the Red Sox hit .234 with RISP and it's no coincidence they have a record of 20-23.

With the Yankees getting hot and cutting the division lead to seven games. It's panic time in much of Red Sox Nation.

But don't let some dope on the TV or the radio convince you this team can't succeed as is. Unless Theo Epstein can blackmail a GM to take Drew or Lugo and their overpriced contracts, then the Red Sox shouldn't make any trades at the deadline. The only move they need to make is to move Julian Tavarez out of the rotation and into the pen.

The season is incredibly long. Teams get hot, cool off, slump, get hot again and repeat this process multiple times during the season. In fact, the 2003 Marlins, the 2004 Red Sox, the 2005 White Sox, and the 2006 Cardinals all had stretches of over 40 games in which they played sub .500 baseball.

The Red Sox have too many quality players on offense to continue to slump for this long. That's the great thing about the length of the baseball season, things have a way of averaging out over the course of 162 games. Manny Ramirez, who has never had a slugging percentage of under .587, will probably improve on his .495 slugging percentage in 2007.

And Manny is the key for this offense, he's too important, not just for the runs he drives in but for the protection his gives David Ortiz. This season, managers have not been punished for pitching around Big Papi, and as a result, he has seen less to hit.

Another important piece of the offensive puzzle is J.D. Drew, he cannot continue to hit lead off. The Sox need him in the five-hole hitting more than just singles. When Drew is up, he usually has Ortiz and/or Manny on base, and unless one of them is on third base, they're not coming home on a single.

Just now as I am writing this, Jose Contreras pitched around Big Papi with two outs and nobody on base. Then plunked Manny, and Drew punished him with a three run homer. Unfortunately, the umps took it away from him (it just cleared the Green Monster and bounced back into the field), so he only got credit for an RBI double. It's still a great sign.

The Red Sox have the best team on-base percentage in the Majors at .357. With the talent they have on offense, it is only a matter of time before things start clicking and all those runners start coming home. Maybe Drew's home run, and Tito's resulting "Pinniella-esque" blow up and ejection is the spark this team needs to get the ball rolling and keep it rolling into October. After all, hitting, like winning, is contagious.

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